We are close to breaking the carbon budget, but there are some reasons for optimism

The world is tiptoeing closer to the global warming threshold set by the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, meaning trillions of dollars’ worth of oil, gas and coal reserves need to remain underground, unused.

“We can only dig out and release another 900 gigatons of carbon dioxide,” says climate change researcher, Richard Templer, director of innovation at the ‎Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment at Imperial College London. “We’ve already burned two thirds of what we can burn,” Templer told Science|Business.

This is often referred to as the world’s ‘carbon budget’. Exceeding this limit will prompt a global average temperature rise of 2 degrees Celsius – scientists say we are now halfway there – leading to rising sea levels, heatwaves, droughts and more extreme weather.

There is a growing evidence of humans’ role in global warming, said Templer. “For example, we can say that the 2012 UK floods were most likely caused by manmade climate change. Their intensity and duration were so statistically improbable that it’s the only obvious cause.”

For Templer, it was up close and personal. “When I saw Wytham Street, where I live, under water on the television, I literally fell out of my chair.”

The good news is that there is a growing movement of energy investors away from oil and gas. In the last year $2 trillion moved from fossil-fuel to non-fossil fuel investments, according to Templer.

“The tide is moving in one direction: to decarbonise. Other directions have become riskier: you can continue to swim in them, but you risk losing money.”
 

Source: BBC

As the COP21 climate change conference enters its final week and ministers push to seal a deal that will have long-term implications for the health of the planet, Templer sees several reasons for hope.

The renewable sector is growing at a healthy 11 per cent a year. It is now worth $5 trillion dollars, or 4 per cent of global GDP. This is, “a quiet revolution”, Templer said.

Add to that three weighty contributions trying to shift the dial on climate change made in the past year. 

First, the Roman Catholic leader Pope Francis issued a clarion call on the environment in June, while Islamic scholars and religious leaders delivered an Islamic declaration on climate change in August.

Another stark and influential warning came from the governor of the Bank of England and chair of the global Financial Stability Board, Mark Carney, who said climate change could foment a financial collapse, triggered by a sharp decline in the value of investment in fossil fuels.

This means, “There’s now a capital risk that’s invested in the proposition that we can take more than 900 gigatons out of the ground,” said Templer. “It’s probably the most important piece of data out there for investors.”

Energy research

To reinforce the move away from fossil fuels more public money should be flowing to energy research.

When 20 big economies pledged last week in Paris to double spending in energy research and development over five years, there were some who said it would not be too difficult.

The total public R&D spend on energy is very low across the OECD countries, Templer noted. “The average is just 0.04 per cent.” This means promising new renewable technology is not being explored to its potential.

Climate engineering is one example. “It’s this interesting idea to remove greenhouse gases from the atmosphere. But we are doing pretty much zero in this area,” said Templer.  

Source: OECD

Challenging the myths

It is a myth that reducing emissions makes countries less competitive and reduces GDP, said Templer. “It’s the other way round: decarbonising grows GDP, according to OECD figures. It makes you more competitive,” he said. If you take away all subsidies, the cheapest form of electricity in the UK is onshore wind for example.

Another myth is that only developing countries subsidise fossil fuels. “Advanced economies are at it too of course,” Templer said. According to the Paris-based International Energy Agency, governments are spending hundreds of billion annually in subsidies to fossil fuels, more than four times those given for renewable energy.