Hard Brexit is a dark scenario for research

Like many scientists, physicist Carsten Welsch reacted with dismay to the UK’s decision to leave the EU in June. 

He now fears the hangover could get worse, with strong signals the government is prepared to make a clean break from the EU’s single market in return for more control over immigration, law-making and the budget.

Researchers prefer a softer exit, which would involve a compromise on free movement. “This hard Brexit is a dark scenario for research,” said Welsch.

Welsch, a German national who joined the physics department at Liverpool University in 2008, following stints at CERN and the Max Planck Institute for Nuclear Physics in Heidelberg, finds the current messaging alienating. Britain’s status as a science superpower and a magnet for overseas talent is at stake, but this concern is being airily dismissed.

“Clearly our research base is not at the top of anyone’s mind in government,” Welsch told Science|Business.

More EU research money is allocated to British-led partnerships than any other member state and according to data from the Royal Society, more than 31,000 people, 16 per cent of Britain’s university researchers, are drawn from other EU countries. 

“You can’t say with confidence that the best people will come here anymore. We need a detailed plan for where all this is going because the funding implications are severe,” Welsch said.

For now, Welsch’s career in the UK is on an upward trajectory - he was promoted to head of physics at Liverpool University last month. However, he says, since the referendum in June, he has received many phone calls from students and researchers asking for advice on whether to come to the UK or not.

At the same time, some of his colleagues are already thinking of leaving.

In total, Welsch has initiated and is coordinating six EU research projects with a total value of €25 million, including four training programmes with the UK’s Cockcroft Institute, a leading research centre in particle accelerator science, which is run jointly by the universities of Manchester, Lancaster and Liverpool.

While he is grateful for the government’s pledge to replace any lost Horizon 2020 money Welsch says, “It only offers some stability. Longer term, it doesn’t offer a great deal of reassurance.”

Even though the UK will legally remain a member of the EU until 2019, it is already tricky for scientists to fill out funding applications for Brussels, Welsch claims. “Every institute is in a weaker place than it once was because we can’t write down a vision of where our research will be in five or 10 years. The vision can only stretch to two and a half years.”

Welsch favours the soft Brexit scenario, which would see the UK strike an EU associate partner deal similar to that of Switzerland. This would mean that, “fundamentally, not much changes. We’d still have access to funding, although we wouldn’t contribute to any decisions.”

Now though, associate membership looks like being a very hard sell, with government’s tough talk priming everyone for a complete severance from the EU. “I’m pretty sure the EU can’t make it a paradise trip for the UK either, for fear of creating a precedent other countries can follow,” Welsch said.

Countering isolation fear

It will take more time before any real impact of the vote on Britain’s appeal to foreign scientists reveals itself. 

And as yet, Brexit uncertainty has not noticeably affected the Cockcroft Institute’s research collaborations with industry. “It is probably still too early for this to happen,” said Welsch.

He does not think Brexit will close all doors for research exchange with other EU countries either.

During the Cold War, Russian scientists successfully countered isolationism, despite operating in a more desperate climate. “It gives me hope that the research vision remains a lot bigger than what politics is offering us right now,” Welsch said.