Brexit may lead to thousands more heart attacks and strokes, researchers say

Brexit could lead to thousands more deaths from heart attacks and strokes due to rising prices for fruit and vegetables, a new academic study suggests.

Researchers from Imperial College London and Liverpool University looked at how different Brexit outcomes, ranging from a deal to no-deal, would lead to increasing costs for imported fruit and vegetables, resulting in people potentially eating less and increasing their risk of cardiovascular disease.

The findings, published this week in the journal BMJ Open, reveal that many post-Brexit trade scenarios would reduce fruit and veg intake in England, with a no-deal crash out being the most damaging to public health, lowering consumption and contributing to an estimated 12,400 additional deaths in England between 2021 and 2030.

The UK is heavily reliant on imports of fresh food. In 2017, 84 per cent of fruit and 43 percent of vegetables in the UK were imported.

“We know only about half of all families in England are eating the recommended amounts of fruit and vegetables. And we’re pretty confident as the price for these items goes up, people are even less inclined to buy them,” said Anthony Laverty, research fellow in the public health policy evaluation unit at Imperial.

The World Health Organization advises people to eat an average of five portions of fruit and vegetables per day. Only 27 per cent of adults aged 19 to 64 and 35 per cent of those aged over 65 achieve these daily recommended intakes.

“Staying within the European Union appears the best option to protect public health,” said Martin O'Flaherty, professor in epidemiology at Liverpool University, who jointly led the study.

The researchers said the scenarios they modelled are not exhaustive and do not reflect all Brexit scenarios currently being debated.

The team used data from the World Trade Organization and the UK Revenue and Customs to assess the impact of different Brexit scenarios. The models included a free trade agreement with the EU and third-party countries; a free trade agreement with the EU; and a no-deal Brexit without a new trade agreement.

All scenarios assumed an increase in trade tariffs and transaction costs – additional costs attributed to increased border controls – which the UK will be required to pay on imported goods when it leaves the EU.

Under all Brexit scenarios modelled, prices rose. For example, under a no deal Brexit the cost of bananas rose by some 17 per cent, citrus fruits by 14 per cent, and tomatoes by 15 per cent.

No-deal would have by far the biggest impact, Laverty said, with the drop in fruit and veg intake contributing to over an average of 4,110 additional deaths of coronary heart disease and 8,290 stroke deaths between 2021-2030.

The findings are consistent with previous Brexit research and cannot be dismissed as ‘project fear’, Laverty said.

“We started the process more than a year ago, and we tried to come to the best available judgement. We have no particular view ourselves,” he said.