Scottish researchers face up to the Brexit conundrum

With Scotland this week possibly a step closer to a fresh vote on independence, researchers are agonising over a complicated question: which is the most financially secure, science-friendly union of which to be a part, the UK or the EU?

The prospect of another referendum on Scottish independence is seen as more likely after the UK Supreme Court ruled that the elected administrations of Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland, have no legal say on the triggering of Article 50, which will start two years of Brexit negotiations with Brussels.

The majority of staff at Scottish universities rejected an effort to break free from the UK in 2014’s independence referendum, feeling that remaining would be better for the country’s research sector.

But Brexit has altered the mood music, leading many to calculate whether Scotland would be better off financially as part of the EU than as part of an independent Britain.

Scotland voted overwhelmingly to remain in the EU - by 62 per cent to 38 per cent - in June last year.

For researchers, the benefits in terms of the flow of grants and talent, were straightforward. Should there be a new independence vote, the trade-offs will not be so clear.

Jim Gallacher, emeritus professor at Glasgow Caledonian University, voted to stay in the UK in 2014, but cannot say for sure if he would in a new ballot.  

“If the Brexit negotiations go badly and we end up out of the single market, the changed complexion of UK politics would mean people like myself, who were adamant to vote against independence two years ago, would have to look very carefully at the issues again,” he said.

“In 2014 we had a very strong campaign to remain. Now, they’re split into many factions and it’s difficult to see them coming together with the same clear enthusiasm we had the last time around.”

“I still meet regularly with friends and colleagues who voted to remain and the view is that we’re less certain than we were in the past,” he added.

Murray Pittock, pro-vice principal of special projects at Glasgow University, wants Scotland to become independent. Brexit has crystallised this view.

“I don’t think another referendum can be avoided. Our science community is extremely disturbed by the UK government’s priorities on immigration,” he said. Prime minister Theresa May’s big Brexit speech last week made it clear she intends to take control of immigration into the UK from the EU27.

While emails are zipping back and forth in universities with informal campaign strategies, for the moment it is a phoney war.

A fall in oil prices and lingering concerns over how Scotland will able to fund itself outside the UK means nobody is rushing into a new referendum. Polling shows Scots are cool on the prospect.

Many researchers are on alert, but are not likely to take an official stand unless a vote is triggered.

Risk of leaving UK and EU

One of the big possible nightmares for the Scottish electorate is suddenly finding themselves out of two unions.

“It would be very unsatisfactory to be out of Europe,” said Gallacher. “It would be even more unsatisfactory to be out of the UK with no certainty to get back into Europe. We’d end up in a very disadvantaged place.”

Nicola Sturgeon, Scotland’s first minister, has been to Brussels to make it clear to the European Commission and members of the EU that Scotland wants to remain in the bloc.

But how it would get back into the EU is hardly obvious.

Spain would likely veto Scottish membership, concerned the region of Catalonia might seek to break away and follow its lead.

The country’s prime minister, Mariano Rajoy, was adamant of this in 2015. “If the UK leaves, so does Scotland,” he said. “The Spanish government rejects any negotiation with anyone other than the UK. I’m radically against it, the treaties are radically against it, and I think everyone else is radically against it.”

Despite Spain’s bluntness, Pittock does not believe the EU would alienate a country which voted to remain. “In the end, I don’t think EU membership would be a problem for us,” said Pittock. “I understand we’d get in and that this would be sorted out down the line.”

But he does acknowledge the slim chance of independence without a “clear steer” from the EU. “Without the EU guaranteeing membership it would be too much of a risk for people and therefore hard to see the referendum carrying,” he said. 

Research funding at stake

An analysis by the Scottish government suggests that under a hard Brexit Scottish GDP could be around £11 billion per year lower by 2030. Resources for public spending could be as much as £3.7 billion a year lower, meaning a likely hit for university funding.

Since 2014, almost €296 million has been secured by Scottish organisations from the EU Horizon 2020 research programme.

Between 2014 - 2015 alone, Scottish universities secured £94 million from various EU sources, including EU governments, charities, business and others, making up 9.4 per cent of their total research income. Over a quarter of all research staff at Scottish universities are from the EU.

These figures were collected in a government plan drawn up last month which looks at the complicated option of Scotland remaining within the EU single market after Brexit.

The blueprint had input from an advisory body which includes Anton Muscatelli, principal and vice-chancellor of Glasgow University and the former chief scientific adviser to ex-Commission President Jose-Manuel Barosso, Anne Glover.

“The changed circumstances will shift some votes one way, some another,” said Murdo Macdonald, professor of history of Scottish art at Dundee University. “However I think that there will be many university academics, particularly scientists who value European funding, who would be likely to shift to voting for independence.”