Train doctors for the big data future of healthcare, say science futurologists

The potential for both the underuse and misuse of massive amounts of healthcare data will be a major challenge in the next 15 years, according to a new report from science and technology experts.

As the capabilities of digital devices soar, and prices fall, sensors and gadgets are generating and acquiring huge volumes of information relating to health and wellness. New types and sources of healthcare data have become available – or soon will – in overwhelming quantity.

“While the provision and cost of medical care will be a major concern, an ageing society can stimulate innovation in health services and products … with appropriate investment,” says the report, "The Future of Europe is Science", written by the Science and Technology Advisory Council (STAC), an independent and informal group of science and technology experts, which is chaired by the European Union’s chief scientist, Anne Glover.

Europe is a world leader in producing knowledge, but relatively weak at making the most of that knowledge and translating it into economic and social benefit. “We intend our report to prompt European policy-makers, decision-makers and citizens to think about the future beyond the short term, so that we are all better prepared to make the most of opportunities offered by science, engineering and technology,” the authors say.

Alongside healthcare, the report considers the future of energy supply, job creation, climate adaptation, information technology and education. The findings were presented by European Commission President José Manuel Barroso at a conference in Lisbon on Monday.

This is the second report from STAC, which claims such systematic foresight activities are needed because policy-makers must anticipate potential threats and opportunities, and manage risks prudently and effectively. In addition, foresight exercises can help ensure that transitions and technological opportunities are equally accessible to all citizens. Knowledge is an increasingly valuable commodity: a knowledge divide in society could have severe consequences, STAC says.

Unproven theory

The handy, but as yet unproven theory, is that more healthcare data will make for better healthcare. It will provide the means to identify the most effective treatments, to predict the onset of disease before symptoms emerge, and help avoid unwanted drug reactions.

But the huge increase in the volume of information held in digital health records will not automatically make life easier for doctors, or improve patient care. Rather, it may be so hard to digest that a lot of potential goes untapped.

Data and knowledge are not the same thing, the report warns. “The obvious risks that will need to be tackled are the rise of misinformed self-diagnosis and a proliferation of false medical information,” it says.

With algorithms that accurately make diagnoses and prognoses starting to come into use, medical training should be updated to equip doctors in the basics of statistics, programming, genetics and epigenetics, so that they can handle data and advise patients appropriately, the report recommends.

Recent surveys on which the report draws, say that 55 per cent of EU citizens identified health and medical care as the top priority for science and technology in innovation over the next 15 years.

Safeguarding data

Healthcare information needs to be shared in an appropriate way. “Sources of validated, scientifically correct information must be made available to citizens, as otherwise trust in qualified medical establishments could be eroded,” the report says.

Ensuring data security and protecting privacy for health users will become harder as information multiplies. Effective safeguards are needed, “To prevent commercial, political or social abuses of citizens’ personal data.” The authors suggest the European Union takes the lead in drawing up ethical guidelines.