A new study proposing an evolution of the analysis model of the COVID-19 epidemic, of the restriction measures applied in Italy and of future scenarios has been published in the scientific journal Nature Medicine.
Politecnico di Milano took part in the study, with Professor Patrizio Colaneri, from our Department of Electronics, Information and Bioengineering, together with researchers from the Policlinico San Matteo of Pavia and from the Universities of Trento, Udine and Pavia.
The proposed model aims to predict the course of the epidemic to plan an effective control strategy. The model considers eight stages of infection: hence the model name, SIDARTHE. Distinguishing between diagnosed and non-diagnosed cases highlighted a distortion in disease statistics. In fact, Performing an insufficient number of tests underestimates the transmission rate and overestimates the mortality rate (CFR).
The findings of the study suggest that enforcing strong social-distancing measures is urgent, necessary and effective: the earlier the lockdown is enforced, the stronger the effect obtained. The model results also confirm the benefits of mass testing, whenever facilities are available. Despite strict isolation policies, efforts should be focused on developing more effective treatment strategies to combat COVID-19.
Giordano, G., Blanchini, F., Bruno, R. et al.
Modelling the COVID-19 epidemic and implementation of population-wide interventions in Italy.
Nat Med (2020)
You can find the study on: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41591-020-0883-7
This article was first published by Politecnico di Milano.