CSC: Digital twins advance Arctic and Baltic sea ice research and climate adaptation

The Arctic area is one of the hot spots of climate change. The Nordic Cryosphere Digital Twin (NOCOS DT) project developed sea ice research tools tailored to the unique conditions of the Nordic, Baltic and Arctic regions, and contributed to the development of a global climate change information system.

In the Arctic area, air temperature change is 3–4 times larger than the global average. Atmospheric changes are associated with unprecedented shrinking and thinning of the seasonal sea ice especially in the coastal areas. These changes already affect fish species, fishing activities, shipping routes, tourism, and the everyday lives of indigenous peoples. The European Arctic area has been particularly impacted, highlighting the need for action.

Funded by the Nordic Council of Ministers and leveraging the Nordic and Baltic expertise in digital twin technologies, NOCOS DT piloted new models for climate information to support sectors such as navigability, shipping, vessel design, engineering, fishing, and renewable energy. The project started in February 2023 and finished in October 2025. It was coordinated by CSC with partners including Danish Meteorological Institute, Finnish Meteorological Institute, Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, and Tallinn University of Technology, Department for Marine Systems.

Beyond the immediate industrial benefits such as improved safety and efficiency in coastal engineering, shipping, and fishing, the project’s outcomes have longer-term societal and economic value. They enhance policymaking, support innovation, and strengthen the society’s ability to adapt to climate change, including decision-making and measures that support traditional hunting and fishing by indigenous peoples.

Read the summary of the project’s key outcomes and six use cases and key outcomes.

“Through NOCOS DT, the Nordic-Baltic region demonstrates the power of collaboration in turning knowledge into actionable results. By combining shared expertise, technologies, and evidence-based insights, the region contributes to Climate Change Adaptation Digital Twin (Climate DT) with new sea-ice use cases that make climate information more democratic, accessible, and directly usable for decision-making. This joint effort strengthens our ability to adapt to and mitigate climate change – showing that when the Nordic-Baltic countries work together, cooperation translates into tangible results, benefiting the region as a whole, but in particular the Arctic ecosystems and the people whose lives and livelihoods depend on them,” says Dan Koivulaakso, Director, Growth & Climate, Nordic Council of Ministers.

NOCOS DT piloted digital twin interoperability

NOCOS DT explored, defined, and piloted digital twin technologies in close alignment with the European Commission’s flagship initiative, Destination Earth (DestinE), and particularly its Climate Change Adaptation Digital Twin (Climate DT). Climate DT delivers global high-quality climate information at a resolution of around 5 kilometres, much more detailed than current climate models.

The project was a pioneer in demonstrating how digital twins can benefit from each other, and pushing the boundaries of what digital twins can achieve for climate change adaptation.

Most of NOCOS DT’s models and applications use the Climate DT data, making the project a pioneer in demonstrating how different digital twins can benefit from each other, and uniquely pushing the boundaries of what digital twins can achieve for climate change adaptation. NOCOS DT significantly contributed to DestinE by providing advanced tools for understanding and forecasting sea ice conditions.

“The NOCOS DT project has been a trailblazer in harnessing the power of Climate DT – being one of the first to explore how the climate digital twin data can be applied to real-world challenges. NOCOS DT not only demonstrated the use of Destination Earth’s capabilities, but also showcased the value of collaboration across digital twin initiatives, paving the way for more integrated and impactful climate change adaptation solutions,” says Irina Sandu, Director of Destination Earth, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts.

Wide scientific impact

In addition to advancing digital twin technology, NOCOS DT produceda large number of scientific publications in the field of sea ice research. Furthermore, the project partners are working on a joint scientific publication on the usefulness of Climate DT in Arctic services, to be submitted to the Climate Services journal.

“The manuscript evaluates the quality of the Climate DT simulations with specific focus on how they can be used to assist offshore activities in ice-infested waters in the northern hemisphere and how these activities are impacted by the changing climate. The services developed are tested in both present day and the future climates, until 2040. They indicate features and trends in sea ice conditions and how they change with time”, says Till Rasmussen, Danish Meteorological Institute, lead author of the NOCOS DT joint scientific publication.

Building on NOCOS DT’s results: collaboration and user focus

NOCOS DT’s open source software design ensures reusability for stakeholders regionally and globally. The results are already being further developed in new initiatives, such as the Digital Twin of the Earth System for Cryosphere, Land Surface and Related Interactions (TerraDT), funded by the European Commission and led by CSC.

As the NOCOS DT project concluded, it joined forces with TerraDT for a workshop in Tallinn on 27–28 October 2025. The event brought together experts from research, industry, and policy to explore how digital twin technologies can enhance the understanding of sea ice dynamics, decision-making and sustainability in the Arctic and Baltic regions. Engaging discussions highlighted innovative applications, user-driven solutions, digital twin interoperability, and collaboration opportunities in climate adaptation.

“The one thing that came up throughout this event the most prominently was focus on the user. Without users, technology is pointless. As awareness of digital twins and what they can do increases, so do our opportunities to find out what’s relevant to our users and how to make our services easy to use, in current and future projects,” said Tero Aalto, CSC, NOCOS DT’s programme manager, in his closing speech.

This article was first published on 31 October by CSC.