BSC study lays out methodology to mitigate Europe’s energy crisis through climate predictions

Researchers propose a method capable of predicting variations in renewable energy generation months in advance through climate predictions.

In order to protect the planet, the European Commission announced in 2020 its commitment to make Europe the first continent with zero net greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. Just a few days ago, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) warned about the urgent need to reduce these emissions in the short term.

The great bottleneck to achieve this great challenge is the decarbonisation of the energy sector. However, one of the main limiting factors in the supply of renewable energies such as wind and solar energy is their dependence on the weather, specifically on atmospheric conditions such as wind speed or temperature, which in turn are uncertain due to the natural variability and climate change.

A new study carried out by scientists from the Barcelona Supercomputing Center (BSC) led by Francisco Doblas, Director of the Department of Earth Sciences, and Llorenç Lledó, researcher from the same Department, shows for the first time how changes in atmospheric circulation patterns on a planetary scale - known as teleconnections - affect the generation of renewable energy in different European countries.

According to the authors of the study, the results are of special relevance for the future of electricity systems in Europe, since they propose a method to anticipate variations in the generation of renewable energies months in advance using climate predictions. These forecasts can be very useful for electricity network operators in order to program alternative energy sources; to energy traders to estimate electricity prices; and governments to prevent crisis in energy prices.

The work has been published by the magazine Renewable Energy, a benchmark in renewable energy and energy transition.

"Beyond the mitigation of climate change, the energy crisis that Europe is experiencing as a result of the Russian invasion of Ukraine sends a clear message: our electricity system needs to move towards greater quotas of renewables to achieve energy independence. And that can only be can achieve with a better understanding and predictability of weather and climate fluctuations that affect renewable energy sources," says Doblas.

Effect on renewables of the atmospheric circulation in the European continent

Teleconnections are numerical indices that summarize air movements around the earth's surface, thus connecting weather conditions in regions far apart from each other. In Europe, electricity supply and demand are affected by changes in four teleconnections in the Euro-Atlantic region, which can cause variations in the earth's surface temperature, precipitation, solar radiation and wind speed: the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), East Atlantic Oscillation (EA), East Atlantic/Western Russia Oscillation (EAWR), and the Scandinavian Pattern (SCA).

This study proposes a methodology that transforms the seasonal forecasts of the four Euro-Atlantic teleconnections into wind and solar energy forecasts. The results show the dependence of wind and solar generation on the state of these teleconnections and how seasonal forecasts can help those responsible for the energy sector to better understand the tension between supply and demand in the European electricity system.

"Teleconnections like the NAO have already proven useful for the European electricity sector in explaining recent episodes of low wind power generation or high energy demand. With this study we show how seasonal predictions from teleconnections can inform months in advance of a possible risk of low production of renewable energy, while it can serve to better inform those responsible for making decisions in this regard", concludes Lledó.

This work has been funded by the European Union through its Horizon 2020 program and the Ministry of Science and Innovation.

Reference: Llorenç Lledó, Jaume Ramon, Albert Soret, Francisco-Javier Doblas-Reyes. Seasonal prediction of renewable energy generation in Europe based on four teleconnection indices. Renewable Energy, Volume 186, 2022, Pages 420-430, ISSN 0960-1481. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2021.12.130

This article was first published on 21 April by BSC.