Surprise fall in global emissions is partly due to uptake of renewables

There has been a surprise fall-off in the rate of worldwide carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, due to faster uptake of renewables and reduced coal use in China, according to new data presented at the COP21 UN climate conference in Paris on Monday.

Researchers at the University of East Anglia in the UK and the Global Carbon Project found that carbon emissions are set to decline by 0.6 per cent in 2015, a dramatic turnaround from a decade of growing 2.4 per cent per year.

The rapid worldwide increase in CO2 emissions from fossil fuels has slowed drastically in the last two years, the first time this has happened while the global economy has continued to grow.

The most substantial decline in emissions in the last 15 years was made by EU countries, where legally binding targets set by the EU Commission are credited with driving the use of renewables up to 15 per cent overall. However, the EU remains the third biggest emitter of CO2 in the world, with the US second and China first.

In the report published in Nature Climate Change, the authors highlight solar and wind power as particular successes, with the amount of wind power installed in 2014 the same as the entire world capacity a decade ago. 

Nuclear power has been “less successful” in cutting emissions due to a fall in global capacity, which is attributed to the phasing out of nuclear generators in Germany and Switzerland, and continued high cost.

China was responsible for 27 per cent of CO2 emissions in 2014. But with its cities blighted by severe air pollution, there has been a fall in coal consumption in at least the first eight months of 2015, and use of renewables has gone up.

Green advocates see this as a sign that efforts to slow down global warming are working. 

But while the unexpected fall in emissions was good news at the start of a second week of climate talks in Paris, the report warns the fall may only be temporary and that the switch away from fossil fuels to clean sources of energy needs to be accelerated if catastrophic climate change is to be averted.

Slow progress in CCS and fuel cells

The authors note that little progress has been made on clean energy technologies such as carbon capture and storage and other renewable technologies, for example, hydrogen fuel cells.

Speaking at an energy conference in Brussels Monday, Bert de Colvenaer, executive director of the EU’s public-private partnership in fuel cells, defended the pace of his industry. “It took 120 years to produce an efficient diesel engine. Three years is far too short to see a disruptive technology,” he said. “It’s a question of long, continued work with clear leadership.”

Carmakers in Asia such as Hyundai and Toyota are ahead in the development of hydrogen-powered cars, “but if we talk about fuel cell buses, we head the pack,” de Colvenaer said.

The buses contain batteries that can store electricity generated by the hydrogen fuel cells, in which hydrogen and oxygen are reacted together to form water, with electricity generated as a result. Some buses can travel for up to 18 hours without needing to refuel.

Industry not equipped for a low carbon transition

If the new figures are a fillip for delegates from 180 countries trying to hammer out a global climate accord in Paris, they may inadvertently provide industry with a new excuse to prolong the transition to low carbon technology and methods.

A recent study, ‘Sparking an Innovation Step Change’ carried out by the European Institute of Innovation and Technology’s (EIT) Climate-KIC, found that while 63 per cent of industrial business leaders in Europe acknowledge the risks posed by climate change, only 29 per cent believe they can respond by deploying innovative technologies and ways of working.

"Many businesses seem to have forgotten how to innovate, or are delaying innovation until they get a policy silver bullet,” said Bertrand van Ee, chief executive of the Climate-KIC. “The science shows we need to reconfigure the economy in-line with the 2°C trajectory, and innovation must sit at the centre of the transition.”

The survey gathered data from more than 115 executives in sectors including manufacturing, engineering and construction.  

Fewer than one in four of the companies surveyed said their research and development (R&D) departments have sufficient expertise to respond to climate change, while nearly two thirds dedicate 5 per cent or less of their R&D budget to decarbonisation.

Diego Pavia, chief executive of the EIT’s INNO Energy-KIC said governments could use public spending to push industry into more climate innovation.

“We could say 10 per cent of yearly procurement has to be for novel technologies or methods,” he said. “That’s the public sector walking the talk.”