Online, down the line

17 May 2006 | News | Update from University of Warwick
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I recently had the opportunity to take part on an investor panel at the Total Telecom World Telecommunications Congress in Geneva. The panel featured both happy VCs behind new telecommunication technologies (VoIP, IP convergence etc…) and troubled telecom executives.

I had the opportunity to take part as a speaker on an investor panel at the recent Total Telecom World Telecommunications Congress in Geneva. The panel was interesting - a strange dialogue between happy VCs funding disruptive telecommunication technologies (VoIP, IP convergence etc…) and troubled telecom executives.

The key lessons from the conference can be structured as follows (those note are based on the minutes/comments taken by E. Jouanne from Occam Conseil).

Network infrastructure

The industry in experiencing cycles of maturation with similar patterns:  “Invest → chase volume → price down → competition eliminated → consolidation”,  today the number of “Baby Bells” is down to 2.5.

The price of bandwidth is continues to fall, even if we are now for the first time seeing price stabilisation in some areas.

The “must-haves” in the environment are Service Level Agreements and secure/reliable networks.

Key stats:

  • +65%  - IP traffic last year
  • +100% - forecast for this year’s IP traffic, based on +25% this quarter

Traffic structure

 “95% of the traffic is data. Video. Flat rate ”

P2P impact on biz models

  • Video bandwidth
  • Services entertainment

 “5% is voice. VoIP accelerates changes (main driver in Business: to replace PBX)”

  • Value-added managed services

Tech to monetise and measure “what customers use”, customer centric measurement.

Access

Evolution in the mid term: Dynamic Frequency Allocation

Convergent networks: Intelligent Management Systems

VoIP

“Voice revenue will disappear for sure. The only question is when will it be 18 months or 5 years?”

In the future three main areas of concern for the customers:

  • “Quality of service: pricing will be key”
  • Quality for pay: right lane, left lane
    • Internet Service Providers will have to be forced by local regulations to disclose any IP delay management (used to slow down VoIP applications)
  •  “Security issue”

Mobile operators

“Today turnover for mobile is 80% voice, 14% SMS, 6 % data “→ “Ultimately it will be like fixed access turnover”

“There will more Instant Messaging usage (IM is the killer app for teenagers. IM will be bundled with VOIP), therefore more data traffic.”

TV/Quadruple play

Huge potential, could be called not quadruple play, but infinite play

Pricing. Flat rate vs. pay: you need to measure whether you charge or not, because there are costs associated to those events

Video on Demand most disruptive for the content industry and small TV stations

Digital Rights Management, secure network, quality

So what? Three cool innovative companies to watch

  • Checkpoint (VoIP security)
  • Baracoda (telecom churn management via Bluetooth-based services)
  • Zenops (mobile gaming)

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